Another week of college football has passed with many changes occurring in the AP top 25. TCU and Nebraska both dropped out of the AP top 25 altogether. There were some jumps forward and some backward for a couple of teams. There are not many huge games this week, but there are a couple of upset alerts that need attention.
Texas State at #25 Texas Tech
Line: Texas Tech by 26
Score Prediction: Texas Tech wins 36-13
Last week, I predicted Texas Tech to upset TCU and the Red Raiders did pull out the upset in a low scoring game. Texas Tech has an offense that can score quickly with Kliff Kingsbury's offense although they did not show it against TCU. Texas State is not a team to underestimate. The Bobcats are 2-0 and head coach Dennis Franchione is a experienced head coach that has made his rounds. I am not predicting an upset, but I do not see the Red Raiders to cover the spread. They will score on this defense, but more than likely not a lot of points will be scored.
Purdue at #24 Wisconsin
Line: Wisconsin by 24
Score Prediction: Wisconsin wins 42-14
Wisconsin lost in a controversial game to Arizona State last week. An argument can be made all day regarding if Wisconsin could have won the game. Purdue is a weak team this year and I see possibly a close first quarter. This game should be all Wisconsin unless they play with an upset attitude from last week's loss. I see the Badgers playing with a lot of heart in order to make up the loss. I see the Badgers covering the spread and an upset is possible in this game, but I am not predicting one. Purdue is in a recovery season with a new head coach so I can not predict an upset over a nice offensively balanced team like Wisconsin.
#23 Arizona State at #5 Stanford
Line: Stanford by 6
Score Prediction: Stanford wins 28-20
This is going to be one of the best games of the week. Stanford is a top ranked team with one of the most powerful balanced offensive attacks in the country. Arizona State is also a team that can score and the Sun Devils are coming off a big win over Wisconsin. Stanford has struggled more than I expected them to in their first two games over San Jose State and Army. I still like Stanford in this game because of their balanced attack. Their defense has flaws but for the most part is solid. I am putting Stanford on upset alert. Arizona State is one of the most underrated teams in the country. The Sun Devils have a lethal passing attack that may give Stanford trouble. Arizona State will need to force Stanford to pass a lot in this game. If the defense keeps Stanford's offense off balanced, they can win this game.Michigan State at #22 Notre Dame
Line: Notre Dame by 6
Score Prediction: Notre Dame wins 27-21
It is pretty obvious that I am going to put Notre Dame on upset alert in this game. Some analysts already have Michigan State favored in this game. I, on the other hand, like the Fighting Irish in this one. Quarterback Tommy Rees has really impressed me this season for the Fighting Irish. The whole team impressed me with their ability to hang with Michigan in the Big House. Michigan State is 3-0 and to be fair they have a great chance of winning this game. This game will the Spartan's first real test and I think they are actually a pretty weak team. They continue to struggle offensively. I will give credit to their defense for stepping up when it matters most which is very important in college football. I see this being a low scoring game with Notre Dame holding the lead for a majority of the game. Michigan State will need to play a solid defensive performance and get their offense going to pull the upset. Notre Dame wins this game but will be on upset alert.
#21 Ole Miss does not play in week 4.
ULM at #20 Baylor
Line: Baylor by 27
Score Prediction: Baylor wins 49-20
Baylor is a team no one is talking about just yet. They are putting up offensive numbers that are just as big as the numbers Oregon's offense is putting up. Their competition so far this season has been weak to say the least. I still think this team is not a team to mess with. Since Texas has gone down hill, I see Baylor pushing Oklahoma State for the Big 12 title. ULM has a great quarterback in Kolton Browning, but I am not putting the Bears on upset alert. The Warhawks just do not have enough depth on defense to win this game. If their defense does show up and keeps this Baylor offense off the field, an upset is possible. I still like the Bears in this game.
Tennessee at #19 Florida
Line: Florida by 17
Score Prediction: Florida wins 28-13
I am actually going with a bold prediction by not putting Florida on upset alert. The Gators are coming off a bye week, the game is in the Swamp, and Tennessee was flattened by Oregon's offense last week. Florida has played poorly offensively which is nothing new for the Gators. This an SEC game so I am not saying that the upset is not possible I just do not see it. Tennessee is much to weak right now to beat Florida in the Swamp. Florida has a great defense that will shutdown the Vols offense, but Jeff Driskel and company has not been able to score so I see a low scoring with Florida winning.
Maine at #18 Northwestern
Line: Northwestern by 28
Score Prediction: Northwestern wins 45-14
There is not much to predict in this game. Northwestern has shown resiliency and has played some solid football. Maine, even though they are 3-0, has yet to play a quality opponent until now. Northwestern will be a little bit too much for Maine to handle despite all the recent FCS upsets. Northwestern wins big.
Idaho State at #17 Washington
Line: Washington by 49
Score Prediction Washington wins 56-10
This is another game that there is not too much to predict. Washington is on a hot streak right now behind quarterback Keith Price. Idaho State is a much weaker opponent. They may prevent the Huskies from covering the spread, but I am not giving Idaho State a chance to win. Washington will win this game with ease.
Savannah State at #16 Miami, FL
Line: Miami, FL by 55
Score Prediction: Miami, FL wins 63-3
Miami, FL is another team that will be playing weak team this week. I am not giving Savannah State a chance to win this one because Miami is playing really well on offense. This game will be over by the third quarter and will be an easy win for the Hurricanes.
#15 Michigan at Connecticut
Line: Michigan by 18
Score Prediction: Michigan wins 38-14
Michigan played poorly last week and almost lost in the Big House to Akron. While this may give just about anybody else a reason to put the Wolverines on upset alert, I am not doing that. I am blaming Michigan's poor performance on celebrating the Notre Dame victory for too long. Connecticut has played poorly all season including a loss to Towson. An upset is possible because the game is at Connecticut and a win over Michigan would salvage the Huskies season. Devin Gardner and company will be too much and Michigan will win this game with ease.
#14 Oklahoma does not play in week 4.
New Mexico State at #13 UCLA
Line: UCLA by 38
Score Prediction: UCLA wins 45-7
Week four has a lot of games that are pretty easy wins for top 25 teams. This is another one of those games. UCLA is coming off a dominating win over Nebraska, one that Nebraska led at halftime. New Mexico State is winless and UCLA is undefeated. If an upset is even remotely possible it is because the Bruins have a young defense. THat same young defense stepped up when it mattered most in their game against Nebraska. Brett Hundley has helped lead a dominating offense and I am not giving New Mexico State a chance to win this game.
#12 South Carolina does not play in week 4.
#11 Oklahoma State does not play in week 4.
SMU at #10 Texas A&M
Line: Texas A&M by 28
Score Prediction: Texas A&M wins 52-17
Texas A&M is coming off a disappointing loss to Alabama in College Station. I do not think this will matter in this game. SMU is capable of pulling upset although they have played poorly this year. The key for any team to beat A&M requires you to stop Johnny Manziel or just outscore the Aggies. This is possible because the Aggies have a weaker defense than most realized. I am still not putting Texas A&M on upset alert. I think their offense is too much for any team to handle and they will run away with the game.
North Texas at #9 Georgia
Line: Georgia by 36
Score Prediction: Georgia wins 52-10
I like Georgia to win this game by a large margin. North Texas is a much smaller team that lacks depth. Aaron Murray and Todd Gurley can not be stopped by the Mean Green defense. Bigger upsets have occurred in college football, but this will not be one of them. If North Texas find a way to shut down the Bulldog's offense and score on their young defense then the upset suddenly becomes possible. This will not happen and Georgia wins with ease.
Bethune-Cookman at #8 Florida State
Line: Florida State by 40
Score Prediction: Florida State wins 54-7
Florida State has been on a hot streak behind quarterback Jameis Winston. Florida State will continue this streak with an easy win over Bethune-Cookman. I am not underestimating Bethune Cookman because they are 3-0 with one of those wins being over Florida International. I have Florida State covering the spread but do not be surprised to see Bethune-Cookman scoring some points on this Seminole defense. Florida State is not on upset alert and will win this game by at least 20 points and will remain undefeated.
Florida International at #7 Louisville
Line: Louisville by 41
Score Prediction: Louisville wins 56-6
I am not giving Florida International a chance to win. I will say that the Cardinals do tend to play badly against weaker teams. Louisville has played solid almost every quarter they have played this season behind quarterback Teddy Bridgewater. Their defense is phenomenal and this should be a blowout. Florida International is 0-3 so far this season and their losing ways will continue. If the Golden Panthers can take Teddy Bridgewater out of the equation then I will say an upset is possible. I still do not see any possibility an upset occurs and I have the Cardinals winning big.
Auburn at #6 LSU
Line: LSU by 14
Score Prediction: LSU wins 27-17
I can finally talk about a game that I think will be really close. I am putting LSU on upset alert. Auburn has played really well so far this season and Gus Malzahn is only in his first season. Last year, Auburn finished with one of the worst records in the SEC and still almost beat LSU last year. I still have LSU winning this game because it is at home, Zach Mettenberger has matured as quarterback, and Auburn still is adjusting under quarterback Nick Marshall. This game could get really close and if an upset occurs, do not be surprised. Auburn is starting to get their swagger back and will be dangerous. I still like LSU in this matchup.
Florida A&M at #4 Ohio State
Line: Ohio State by 50
Score Prediction: Ohio State wins 63-7
This is another game that there will be no chance of an upset. There is a chance Ohio State quarterback Braxton Miller will not play, but this will not matter. It will not matter because they are playing a 1-2 Florida A&M team and Ohio State's back up quarterback Kenny Guiton has been playing exceptionally well. This will be a blowout win for the Buckeyes and they will continue their win streak.
#3 Clemson at North Carolina State
Line: Clemson by 13
Score Prediction: Clemson wins 34-14
This is an interesting game. Clemson is having to travel to North Carolina State for a Thursday night game. These are the types of games that can be a trap for a top ranked team. I think Clemson's offense is much too powerful for North Carolina State, but I still have the Tigers on upset alert. If the Wolfpack can make this a defensive game, the upset is very possible. I think this will be a close matchup for the first half. the second half will be all Clemson and they will win by a comfortable margin. I would give North Carolina State a better chance to upset, but they have already struggled to win against teams like Richmond. Home field advantage can be a lot of motivation for a team so Dabo Swinney's team needs to watch out.
#2 Oregon does not play in week 4.
Colorado State at #1 Alabama
Line: Alabama by 36
Score Prediction: Alabama wins 42-13
Alabama is coming off a big win over Texas A&M. I am not predicting Colorado State to upset Alabama by any chance so I am not putting the Crimson Tide on upset alert. I am not predicting Alabama to cover the spread. Nick Saban has a great amount of respect for most teams and will not run up the score. This is especially true against his former offensive coordinator Jim McElwain. Colorado State is not a team to underestimate. If there is anyone in the country that knows Alabama it is JIm McElwain. I just do not think the Rams have enough depth to keep up with Alabama in Bryant Denny Stadium. I predict this one to be in favor of the Crimson Tide the whole game. Once again, I would not sleep on Colorado State completely if Alabama plays like they are "hungover" from last week's big victory.
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