Another week of college football has passed with the usual excitement. The biggest moves in the AP poll involved #15 ranked Texas falling out of the polls and being replaced by previous unranked Miami, Florida. A new week of college football means another breakdown. So far my record is pretty good predicting a winner. My record of predicting if a team will cover the spread needs some work. This week I will try to go a little deeper into each team to help better predict the winner and the spread.
#25 Ole Miss at Texas
Line: Texas by 3
Score Prediction: Ole Miss wins 30-24
Considering Texas is currently the favorite, this prediction is technically an upset. Texas really disappointed me last week because they returned one of the most experienced teams in the country. I really expected them to do great things this season. The Longhorns were dominated by BYU and lost by 19. Texas is now in bigger trouble now that Mack Brown fired defensive coordinator Manny Diaz in favor of former Michigan defensive coordinator Greg Robinson. Texas is also suffering from some offensive injuries including quarterback David Ash. Ole Miss started their season off with a close win over Vanderbilt. This game will be another challenge for the Rebels even with Mack Brown having trouble with his team. I like the Rebels in this game because quarterback Bo Wallace and the rest of the Rebel's offense has been really impressive so far this season. The Texas defensive struggles will continue in this game. At the same time, Texas can still manage to score points. This game could go either way and it will be interesting to see how both defensives perform. I still give the favorite to Ole Miss.
#24 TCU at Texas Tech
Line: TCU by 3
Score Prediction: Texas Tech wins 38-21
I am going with the upset in this game. TCU has not played up to their usual standard defensively. They struggled against both LSU and Southeastern Louisiana. Texas Tech has performed flawlessly under new head coach Kliff Kingsbury. Texas Tech freshman quarterback Baker Mayfield has really fit in to the up tempo offense. He has thrived in the offense and currently has thrown seven touchdown passes compared to zero interceptions. I think the fast paced offense of Texas Tech will cause the Horned Frogs to struggle. If Texas Tech can slow down TCU's offense there is not a doubt in my mind that they will pull the upset. The game being in Lubbock gives even more of a edge to the Red Raiders.
#16 UCLA at #23 Nebraska
Line: Nebraska by 4
Score Prediction: UCLA wins 38-34
This was one of the toughest games of the week for me to pick. Both teams rely heavily on their offenses and both have strong rushing attacks. Nebraska relies on quarterback Taylor Martinez to run the ball too much and I consider that their weakness. Although I believe Nebraska has the better defense, I give UCLA the edge to win because of their powerful pistol offense. The Bruins also had a by week prior to this game. This is yet another game that could go either way, but I feel like UCLA will win a close. Turnover margin will be very important in this game and whoever has the most rushing yards will win the game. If Martinez performs well and the defense slows down the pistol offense, Nebraska will win.
#22 Baylor does not play in week 3.
#21 Notre Dame at Purdue
Line: Notre Dame by 23
Score Prediction: Notre Dame wins 41-24
While I must admit I did not expect much out of Purdue this year, I still did not expect them to play this poorly at the start of the season. Purdue was routed by Cincinnati in week one and barely got past Indiana State in week two. Notre Dame lost a big game to Michigan last week and I think this game will help build their confidence. I do not predict Notre Dame to cover the spread, but I do see Notre Dame scoring a large amount of points behind quarterback Tommy Rees. Purdue has home field advantage so there is a chance the Boilermakers will upset. Notre Dame's track record also gives even more reason to believe the Boilermakers will upset. Purdue will need to establish a ground game and step up on defense in order to upset. Chances of a Purdue win are very low and I see a comfortable win for the Fighting Irish.
#20 Wisconsin at Arizona State
Line: Arizona State by 4
Score Prediction: Wisconsin wins 38-35
This was another tough game to decide a winner to. Arizona State has a powerful offense, home field advantage, and they are coming off a bye week. Wisconsin is the underdog according to the line. Both teams have not allowed a single point all season, but they have yet play a very tough opponent until this point. I am giving the edge to Wisconsin because of their balanced attack on offense. I can not really rate either defense because they have not played a quality opponent. I am putting Wisconsin on upset alert in this game because it is very likely Arizona State can win the game. Through preseason study I also feel like Wisconsin has the upper edge on defense. This will be a high scoring battle that will go down to the wire and will be a great game. If Arizona State wins they will be looking at a place in the top 25.
#19 Washington at Illinois
Line: Washington by 10
Score Prediction: Washington wins 35-24
Washington started off their season with a nice victory of Boise State. Illinois has been more impressive than I expected including a nice win over Cincinnati last week. I think Washington will cover the spread and win comfortably behind quarterback Keith Price. Now this is one of the biggest games of the week to watch out for an upset. I am putting the Huskies on upset alert. If not for Washington's impressive balanced offense, improved defense, and bye week I would go ahead and predict the upset. Illinois has home field advantage and one of the most underrated quarterbacks in the country in Nathan Scheelhaase. This game may end up being a high scoring affair, but the Huskies should pull out the victory.
#18 Florida does not play in week 3.
Western Michigan at #17 Northwestern
Line: Northwestern by 31
Score Prediction: Northwestern wins 52-10
Northwestern ultimately has two easy games in order to prep for Ohio State in a couple of weeks. Western Michigan has played very poorly all season and I see Northwestern covering the spread and winning big. Western Michigan will have to stop all aspects of the Wildcats' offense in order to pull a victory. An upset is possible even though it is not going to happen. Northwestern wins big in this game and Western Michigan will lose their third straight game.
#15 Miami, FL does not play in week 3.
Tulsa at #14 Oklahoma
Line: Oklahoma by 24
Score Prediction: Oklahoma wins 24-13
Oklahoma starting quarterback Trevor Knight will not be playing this week so Blake Bell will have to replace him. Oklahoma has not had a lot of offensive production and has had to rely heavily on their defense. Tulsa is just the opposite and has to rely heavily on their offense. I am putting Oklahoma on upset alert this week versus Tulsa. Tulsa is capable of throwing the ball around a lot, but I believe Oklahoma will have their defense save them. While Oklahoma may win by a larger margin than 11, I still do not seeing them covering the spread. Blake Bell getting the nod at quarterback probably means a strong rushing attack and clock management. The Sooners win the game in a closer matchup than expected.
Vanderbilt at #13 South Carolina
Line: South Carolina by 11
Score Prediction: South Carolina wins 31-20
South Carolina is coming off a heartbreaking loss to Georgia. It is for this very reason that the Gamecocks need to watch out for Vanderbilt. The Commodores are not a team to underestimate and they bring everything they have every game. I think this game will stay close in the first half and maybe even through the third quarter. South Carolina will likely start to pull away with it behind the read option and the Gamecock defense. In order for Vanderbilt to pull out the upset they will need to force turnovers and find a way to keep their offense rolling. The Commodores showed great poise, but also great weakness in their game against Ole Miss. Can Vanderbilt cause the Gamecocks to lose two games in a row? It is more than just possible. I still give the edge to South Carolina especially with home field advantage. Steve Spurrier and his team are still on upset alert.
Lamar at #12 Oklahoma State
Line: Oklahoma State by 47
Score Prediction: Oklahoma State wins 63-13
Oklahoma State has been kind of unpredictable in the first few weeks of college football. In their first game against Mississippi State, the Cowboys established more of a rushing game than a passing game. they also played very nicely on defense. In their second game, Oklahoma State got back to the normal routine of high passing numbers, but allowed 35 points to UTSA. I do think the Cowboys will win big against Lamar, but there is a slight chance the spread is not covered. Lamar won their first game 75-0 and only lost by 13 to Louisiana Tech in week two. Lamar may put up some points, but at the end of the day they will not be able to stop a dominant offense. Oklahoma State will win big and an upset will not occur.
Akron at #11 Michigan
Line: Michigan by 37
Score Prediction: Michigan wins 48-6
Michigan is coming off a huge win over Notre Dame and will continued to remain undefeated with a win over Akron. Akron is one of the weaker teams in college football and Devin Gardner and the Michigan Wolverines are on a hot streak. I have to be honest, I do not give the Zips any chance of upsetting Michigan in the Big House. Akron's biggest concern will be trying to stop the game from getting out of hand.
Nevada at #10 Florida State
Line: Florida State by 35
Score Prediction: Florida State wins 52-17
Nevada is not playing up to usual standard this year and Florida State played one of the most impressive games in college football in their first game. Nevada pulling an upset is still possible, but will not happen. Florida State is about to start an undefeated streak leading all the way to the Clemson game. If the Wolf Pack wants to beat the Seminoles, they will have to stop the offensive production led by Jameis Winston and James Wilder Jr. Expect a comfortable victory for Florida State even though they may not cover the spread.
#9 Georgia does not play in week 3.
Kent State at #8 LSU
Line: LSU by 38
Score Prediction: LSU wins 38-7
I am not really giving Kent State a chance to upset. I am predicting that LSU will not cover the 38 point spread. Zach Mettenberger has really stepped into the leadership role that fans expected of the LSU quarterback last year. The Tiger defense is also playing much better than I expected and I expect running back Jeremy Hill to get more carries this week. LSU will win big, but will not cover the spread in my opinion.
#7 Louisville at Kentucky
Line: Louisville by 14
Score Prediction Louisville wins 35-17
I think Kentucky will actually make this an interesting game early. They are in the process of a recovery year with new head coach Mark Stoops. The Wildcats like to play their best football at home against big opponents. Louisville is just a little bit to tough for Kentucky and it will be all Cardinal in the second half. Louisville quarterback Teddy Bridgewater has been playing out of his mind. It also did not hurt when Charlie Strong added running back Michael Dyer. Defensively, Kentucky does not have enough offensive playmakers to put up a lot of points on Louisville. An upset is possible, but Louisville will win and cover the spread.
#1 Alabama at #6 Texas A&M
Line: Alabama by 7
Score Prediction: Alabama wins 24-10
This is obviously game of the week. There are so many questions surrounding this game. How will Manziel perform? How will Alabama's offensive line perform? Will recent allegations against Alabama affect their performance? I see Alabama winning this one because of the extra week of preparation and all the work that has been put in this off season. The allegations against former Alabama player Dj Fluker could possibly rattle this team a little bit. If Johnny Manziel plays with the same level of competitiveness as he did last year and the A&M defense takes advantage of a weak offensive line, an upset is HIGHLY possible. In fact it is very easy to say this game could go either way. Obviously the Crimson Tide will be on upset alert. If history has proven anything on how Alabama performs in "revenge" games, the Crimson Tide is the obvious favorite. If Manziel plays like a true Heisman winner, watch out Alabama.
#5 Stanford at Army
Line: Stanford by 30
Score Prediction: Stanford wins 42-10
Army has no chance of winning this football game. Stanford is fundamentally sound on both sides of the ball and should keep this game out of reach for the Black Knights. A "win" for Army would be preventing Stanford from not covering the spread in this one. Miracles can happen, but you will not see one in this game. Army is much too weak and needs a couple of more years to try to build a program.
#4 Ohio State at California
Line: Ohio State by 15
Score Prediction: Ohio State wins 27-20
This is a very intriguing game. California gave the Buckeyes all they could handle last year and the Golden Bears get to host this year's matchup. If California had not lost so many players from last year, I might would have gone right out and predicted the upset. I am putting Ohio State on upset alert because of the Braxton Miller injury and California's home field advantage. Ohio State is also so not as good as they were last year. This game will be closer than expected, but I have the Buckeyes winning. I do not have them covering the spread. The Golden Bears need to shut down Ohio State's offensive production and speed up their own offensive production in order to win. Expect to see some big plays in this game.
#3 Clemson does not play in week 3.
Tennessee at #2 Oregon
Line: Oregon by 20
Score Prediction: oregon wins 45-21
Usually I would see game like this as an upset alert type of game, but I am not putting the Ducks on upset alert. Oregon has been the most impressive college football team this season and Tennessee is still trying to get back to their winning ways. Tennessee is capable of scoring points and forcing turnovers which is what they will need to do to pull the upset. Oregon has an offense that is just too fast for this Tennessee defense and I see the spread being covered and Oregon winning without hesitation. First quarter may be a close one. After that, the game will rapidly begin to fall in the hands of the mighty Ducks.
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